The residual loss is real and the exposure is not sitting equally across all brands. The worst position is OEMs whose captive finance arms set residuals in 2022 and 2023 based on used EV values that were inflated by new vehicle scarcity and federal tax credit eligibility on used units that has since been restructured. When those leases come back the gap between booked residual and actual auction value is being absorbed by the captive, not the dealer. The problem is what happens next. The customer who leased a vehicle with a payment built on a 58 percent residual cannot replicate that payment on a new lease because the OEM cannot set the same residual again without repeating the mistake. So the payment goes up, the customer walks, and the loyalty the lease was supposed to build evaporates at exactly the moment the vehicle comes back.