The OP's read on the diplomatic resolution is probably right but the damage that happens between announcement and resolution is real and it does not get walked back when the tariff threat quietly disappears. We had customers last year who were specifically waiting on a BMW or Mercedes purchase because they heard tariffs were coming and wanted to get in before pricing moved. Some of them pulled the trigger early and the brands got a volume bump. Some of them waited and then got spooked by the uncertainty and bought something domestic instead. The threat alone changes buyer behavior in ways that show up in our sales mix for quarters afterward regardless of what the actual policy ends up being. European brand dealers are not just managing tariff risk. They are managing customer perception of tariff risk, which is a different and harder problem.

The 21 percent export drop number from last year predates this latest announcement and represents the cumulative effect of two years of tariff uncertainty. The brands that have US manufacturing or meaningful USMCA-compliant North American content are in a structurally different position than the ones that are fully import-dependent. BMW's South Carolina plant changes the calculus significantly for their X-series. Volkswagen's situation is more exposed.