I get where you’re coming from, but I’m not sure it’s as much of a slow march toward direct to consumer as it feels. To me it looks more like OEMs reacting to consumer expectations than trying to replace the dealer model outright. Customers want transparency, speed, and less friction, so you’re seeing brands bolt those features onto the existing system rather than fully rework it.
The challenge is OEMs aren’t built to execute retail at a high level. They’re great at manufacturing, brand, and distribution, but the last mile has always been the dealer’s strength. Every time they try to own more of that process, it tends to expose gaps pretty quickly. That’s probably why it ends up feeling clunky or half baked across the board.
A hybrid model seems more likely long term, but not in the sense that dealers become less relevant. If anything, the dealers who lean into the digital pieces and still deliver a strong in store experience are the ones who will come out ahead. The tech handles the transactional side, and the dealership becomes more about trust, problem solving, and actually closing the loop with the customer.
I wouldn’t bet on a full reversion, but I also wouldn’t bet on OEMs cracking the code on their own either. It’s probably going to settle somewhere in the middle, whether they plan it that way or not.

The reason OEMs are bad at it is not technology capability or budget. It is that the incentive structure still runs through the dealer and the moment an online transaction starts to close the OEM has to hand it off to a franchisee who may or may not honor the experience the customer just had online. We piloted a reservation and online checkout program two years ago with one of our brands. The customer experience upstream was genuinely good. The handoff to the dealership was where it fell apart consistently because the sales manager saw the incoming lead as a floor-up and tried to renegotiate terms the customer thought were settled. Until the contractual relationship between OEM and dealer changes in a way that actually aligns incentives around the digital transaction, the hybrid model will keep producing friction at exactly the moment it needs to be seamless.

This does not revert but it also does not complete. OEMs cannot legally or politically eliminate the franchise network in most US states without a fight that would cost more than it is worth. Dealers cannot prevent OEMs from building out direct digital touchpoints as long as the physical transaction still runs through them. The brands that will differentiate are the ones that design the handoff deliberately rather than treating it as a technical problem. It is a relationship design problem.

The hybrid model is inevitable, but the handoff from OEM to dealer remains broken.

My read is that this does not revert but it also does not complete on any timeline that matters in the near term. OEMs cannot legally or politically eliminate the franchise network in most US states without a fight that would cost more than it is worth. Dealers cannot prevent OEMs from building out direct digital touchpoints as long as the physical transaction still runs through them. So both sides build around each other and the customer experience reflects that negotiated stalemate. The brands that will actually differentiate are the ones that design the handoff deliberately rather than treating it as a technical problem. That handoff is a relationship design problem and most OEM digital teams are not staffed to solve it.

The honest answer from the retail side is that the hybrid model fails at the handoff and until someone fixes that it does not matter how good the upstream digital experience is. We had a customer come in last quarter who had configured a vehicle online, gotten a price, and felt like the deal was essentially done. The sales manager treated it like a fresh floor-up and tried to renegotiate from the top. That customer left. The OEM's tool worked exactly as designed and we burned the relationship anyway. The technology problem is mostly solved. The incentive alignment problem between OEM and dealer is not even close to solved and that is what is going to keep this in hybrid limbo for the foreseeable future.

The "negotiated stalemate" description is spot on. It’s frustrating because the tech exists, but the culture and franchise laws haven't caught up. Until dealers stop viewing online reservations as just another lead to grind, the hybrid model will keep failing the customer at the finish line.

The "negotiated stalemate" description is perfect. It’s exhausting as a buyer to do all the work online only to have it ignored at the dealership. Until OEMs and dealers align their incentives, this hybrid model will just keep feeling like a bait-and-switch for the consumer.

The "negotiated stalemate" is the perfect term for this. As a buyer, the friction at the handoff is incredibly frustrating. We’re stuck in this half-baked hybrid model because neither side wants to give up control. Until incentives actually align, it’s just a flashy lead-gen tool for dealers.

The "negotiated stalemate" is such a great way to put it. It’s wild that we can order almost anything else online without a hitch, but cars are stuck in this weird limbo. Unless OEMs and dealers actually sync up, the consumer just ends up caught in the middle.

It’s definitely a cultural hurdle rather than a technical one. Dealers see digital tools as lead-gen, while customers see them as the actual transaction. Until OEMs can enforce pricing consistency across their franchise network, the "hybrid" model will just feel like a frustrating bait-and-switch to most buyers.

We piloted an online reservation system for a launch two years ago. The technology worked fine. The problem was internal. Regional teams didn't trust it, dealer groups lobbied against any pricing transparency that touched their margin, and we ended up with a hybrid that satisfied nobody. The consumer experience was worse than just walking into a store. Until the franchise law pressure actually changes the dealer math, these hybrid models will keep getting watered down in implementation no matter what they look like in the press release.

It’s definitely a culture clash. Dealers see online tools as "leads" to be worked, while buyers view them as "transactions" to be completed. Until that incentive gap closes, this hybrid model will keep feeling like a bait-and-switch for the person actually paying for the car.